Tom Sherry's 2018 Summer Forecast: Another warm and dry summer ahead
This year, he is predicting above average temperatures and below normal precipitation.
It’s that time of year again! Chief Meteorologist Tom Sherry is back with his long-range summer forecast.
This year, he is predicting above average temperatures and below normal precipitation.
Tom says that since June can be a bit of a “stinker,” we often get pretty significant rainfall on par with October.
“So whereas we have the longest days in June – we have the summer solstice – we can also have some fairly wet weather,” Tom said. “Typically we get about an inch and a quarter of rain… and a lot of times the rain in the summer won’t be like this steady rain, it will be like thunderstorm rain. It kind of moves in and rains a lot and that’s what adds to the rain gauge.”
Things dry out in July, August and September – typically the driest months of the year.
“During July and August, it’s an inch or less,” Tom said of the 30 year rain averages. “Then in September it’s almost only three quarters of an inch of rain.”
Dry Summer
Last summer, we set a new record for number of days without precipitation in a row. The area went 80 days with no measurable precipitation.
The previous dry streak was set a century ago and only 73 days.
This summer is looking to be fairly dry as well, Tom says, though perhaps not quite as dry as last year.
“I think our driest period that we can enter into the 90 day period would be more into early fall or late summer,” Tom estimated.
Tom says if you are planning a trip, you should shoot for a four week window in the last two weeks of July and the first two weeks of August for the warmest and driest days of the summer.
Wildfires
He is a little torn on what that will mean for wildfires.
“So the forest will dry out and it also may mean less thunderstorms,” Tom explained. “So forest dries out - not a good thing - but if we have less thunderstorms that is a good thing because in the sense we don’t have the lightning to start those fires.”
Air Quality
Labor Day weekend last year, Sandpoint had the worst air quality in the nation because of the wildfires in the region. The entire town was covered in smoke for much of the summer from Montana then later British Columbia.
“We cannot dodge the smoke,” Tom said. “The wind shifts so much depending on where the high and low pressure systems are that if there’s fires burning within 500 miles of where we are they’re huge, chances are we’re going to eventually get that smoke transported into our area.”
