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What the CFP rankings mean for Wazzu's bowl destination

Tuesday when the College Football Playoff committee released their weekly rankings, it felt like Coug nation took a second gut punch after their loss to Washington on Friday.

Tuesday when the College Football Playoff committee released their weekly rankings, it felt like Coug nation took a second gut punch after their loss to Washington on Friday.

It all had to do with the number 13.

That’s where the Cougs were ranked, and that is a big deal because in order to play in a New Year’s Six Bowl, you have to be ranked within the top 12.

Let’s start at the beginning, why did this Coug team drop from 8 to 13 after their loss to a Washington team that is obviously a good team in their own right?

It all boils down to this: Strength of schedule. It is one of the College Football Playoff Committee’s major factors when it comes to rankings.

What’s ironic?

The CFP Committee doesn’t have any sort of standardized strength of schedule metric, which feels very NCAA to have some sort of nubilous, undefined term out there, but I digress.

Because the NCAA doesn’t have a standardized strength of schedule index, we’ll use ESPN’s Football Power Index, which is their version of strength of schedule rankings.

WSU’s schedule comes in #17 in the nation.

In the CFP rankings yesterday Florida was ranked #9, their SOS ranking is #13. Behind the Gators at number #10 was LSU, their SOS is ranked 16th. Finally, the #12 ranked team was Penn State, their SOS is ranked eighth.

So your next question is why is Washington State’s strength of schedule so low? There are two reasons.

One: In general, the Pac-12 is down this year and a lot of teams have beat up on each other. Two: Let’s be frank, the Coug’s non-conference schedule was not exactly challenging.

They won at Wyoming, a team that needed a four-game win streak at the end of the season to finish 6-6 and thus become bowl eligible.

They defeated a San Jose State team at Martin that finished the year with one win, and one of their 11 losses was to FCS team UC Davis.

And, however fantastic of a season Eastern Washington has had, a win at home for the Cougs over an FCS school doesn’t exactly make your strength of schedule sky rocket.

So, that’s how the Cougs, at two losses, fell behind Penn State, Florida, LSU, and Washington, who all have three losses.

Here’s the next logical thought process: Well, some of those teams play this weekend, so maybe with a loss from one of them the Cougs will move up.

Hate to be the bearer of bad news here, but Florida, LSU, and Penn State did not win enough conference games for them to make their respective conference championship games.

The #8 team, UCF, is playing in the American Athletic Conference championship game this weekend, and did lose their starting quarterback last weekend, but the results of that game literally won’t impact the Cougs.

And you’re like that makes no sense? Well, it’s a requirement that one of the New Year’s six bowls gives out a bid to a non-power five conference team. So either UCF, Boise State, or Fresno State is headed to one of those bowls.

After that, there is no way a team in the top 7 loses and WSU leap frogs them. Just not gonna happen.

With Florida, LSU, and Penn State all not playing this week, and the UCF game not impacting the Cougs, who does that leave left?

Yep, Wazzu’s favorite team, the Huskies.

Utah needs to come out and stomp the Huskies. Not just like a three point win. It’s gotta be like a 14 to 21 point win for Washington State to overtake the Huskies in the rankings, and thus get back into the top 12.

If Utah wins and the Cougs overtake the Huskies in the rankings, that would mean that the Utes go to the Rose Bowl, and WSU could, and could is the operating word in this sentence, get a bid to the Fiesta bowl.

It’s an extremely unlikely scenario that the Cougs jump the Huskies because Washington State just lost to the Washington, and the committee won’t forget that. Also the idea that Utah could come out and rout Washington is unlikely because the Utes are playing with their back-up quarterback. He has gone 3-0 since he took the helm, but he has not seen a defense remotely as good as Washington’s.

So because the deck is already stacked against the Cougs, and the fact that in order to reverse that situation they are relying on a scenario that seems far fetched, I’d put my money on the Cougs going to the Alamo Bowl. It’s the Pac-12’s #2 bowl game behind the Rose Bowl.

At the beginning of the season I think any Coug fan would’ve been overjoyed at that, but now, boy, does it feel like a consolation prize.

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