SPOKANE, Wash. — As Spokane County rolls into the fall 2020 season, questions continue to pop up regarding the ongoing COVID-19 situation.
Yes, sometimes they're the same questions we've been asking since March and sometimes the answers to those questions change on a seasonal, monthly or even weekly basis.
Here are some of the latest answers to your top 3 questions in early October.
Note: The analysis in this story is based off of data reported by Spokane Regional Health District as of Monday, Oct. 5. For the latest look at Spokane County's latest COVID-19 data, visit the SRHD website.
Is 'the curve' flattening?
Although it is a question asked more prominently in the spring and early summer, local and statewide health officials continue to watch to see if the curve of COVID-19 cases is flattening out or dropping.
Although Washington Governor Jay Inslee has ruled out any county's move forward in the various phases of reopening, local health leaders are still watching the latest reported case numbers closely.
By adding a rolling, 14-day average calculation into a graph, Spokane County's latest curve has nearly returned to its peak levels in July, with an average number of daily cases climbing above 80.
To answer this question: no, Spokane County's curve is not flattening or dropping, but is instead is approaching record highs.
Are we close to moving into Phase 3?
The criteria to move into Phase 3 includes several different metrics, the analysis of many points of data and the strength of a contact tracing plan.
But there is one easily trackable way to find the answer to our question.
In order for any county to move into Phase 3, the county needs to report less than 25 cases per 100,000 people in the population over a two-week stretch.
For Spokane County, that means we would need to see less than approximately 130 new cases total, over 14 days.
Take a look at this graph with that 130 mark identified by the bright orange line:
It's pretty easy to see Spokane County is headed in the wrong direction. In fact, the last time the county was below the necessary total was on May 27, when single-day case numbers were reported regularly.
Therefore, the answer to our second question is: no, Spokane County is not moving closer to Phase 3 of the state's reopening plan. In fact, the data shows the county is headed in the opposite direction.
How is COVID-19 impacting local students?
To answer this question, here is a graph showing how COVID-19 has impacted Spokane's population, broken down by age demographics since Sept. 1 when schools first started reopening.
The two age groups most impacted with schools are the 0-9 year-old range (young children) and the 10-19 year-old range (older children and teenagers).
Since Sept. 1, young children have made up 4% of COVID-19 cases, which marks the third-smallest reported percentage even with the return of school.
But over that same timeframe, older children and teenagers account for 15% of COVID-19 cases, which marks the second-largest reported percentage.
This could explain why schools have started with some of the youngest students returning to the classroom before considering welcoming older students at a later date.