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JASON KADAH: Snowpocalypse 2008?

by mboyle

Posted on October 19, 2009 at 1:12 PM

I thought I'd share some of my thoughts and observations on this gift of white that Mother Nature has given us for the Holidays.

Let me start off by saying that from a forecasting perspective, snow is one of the most interesting and challenging to forecast.

Throw in the topography that is the Inland Northwest, and I'm guessing no bookie in Vegas is "taking the points" on my forecast.

It certainly has the potential to be a bust sometime, somewhere in these parts. We get calls and emails all the time from folks suffering from "myhouseitis".

If it didn't happen at my house, it didn't happen at all. As tv meteorologists, we understand that and try and treat the symptoms by providing the most accurate forecast possible, but as they say in this business, you're only as good as your last forecast.

So even though we sometimes feel like Nicholas Cage in that movie, "The Weatherman", we understand it comes with the territory.

Now as far as this wild winter weather, I know, you're thinking here we go again. And at the beginning of the season, my thoughts were that it would be an "average" snowfall this year (roughly 44 inches of snow for the season). My reasoning is solely based on history, not some fancy scientific evidence, and not Al Gore.

Last year was a La Nina year (over 92 inches for the season), which for us, typically means a more active weather pattern. The opposite would be El Nino, which would typically mean a less active pattern and we wind up crying for snow and rain. This year was forecast to be neutral with neither feature more prominent than the other.

That still leads me to believe although things have been active of late, I think we'll eventually go through a lull in which we start asking who turned off the snow machine?!

Those are my thoughts, but granted, I've been a little "off" before.

Happy Holidays!