Some of you looked at the headline and said, "Who is Ken Pomeroy?" In fact, most of you probably did.
The best thing I can tell you is...the guy is a genius (I talked a little bit about him last season). He uses a formula (the pythagorean calculation for expected winning percentage) to create a ratings system "that is designed to be purely predictive."
In his own words:
"The purpose of this system is to show how strong a team would be if it played tonight, independent of injuries or emotional factors. Since nobody can see every team play all (or even most) of their games, this system is designed to give you a snapshot of a team's current level of play."
On his website (kenpom.com), he actually has the predicted outcome for every game for every team for the rest of the season.
Am I making any sense?
The reason I'm bringing this up now, as opposed to earlier, is that he finally gathered enough data and just released his predictions (the ratings have been up all year).
Pomeroy predicts that Washington State (currently ranked 25th according to his formula) will finish the regular season 21-9, including a 12-6 record in the Pac-10.
If that's how it really turns out (he was pretty accurate last year)...I'll celebrate!
Of the games he has predicted WSU to lose (the next loss is supposed to be Louisiana State on December 27th); none are expected to be blowouts. The largest margin of defeat this season is supposed to be three points (55-52) to UCLA (in Los Angeles) on February 21st.
The biggest surprise is that Pomeroy thinks WSU will be undefeated at home the rest of the year (that includes wins over the conference's top teams).
As for Wazzu's next game (on December 21st) against Idaho, Pomeroy predicts the Cougars will win 58-47.
We'll check back after the game to see how close he was.
We learned last year that the score isn't always right on, but the margin of victory is usually very close. So, if the score isn't 58-47, there's a good chance to Cougars win by 9-13 points (maybe).
I suggest you visit his website for more information. It's worth the visit.
UPDATE 12/16/08: The game time for Sunday's game against Idaho was changed from 7:05pm to 5:05pm. Just a heads up!
The other cool thing about Pomeroy's ratings are that they can change every day (depending how teams are playing...the numbers are always being crunched). Today, the prediction is for Wazzu to beat LSU on December 27th. Yesterday, the Tigers were supposed to beat the Cougs.
WSU also dropped from 25th to 27th...that's not as cool!